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Confirmation Bias.. And the Doobie Brothers

Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, or interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that affirms one's prior beliefs or hypotheses. According to Psychology Today, “Confirmation Bias occurs from the direct influence of desires on beliefs. When people would like a certain idea or concept to be true, they end up believing it to be true. They are motivated by wishful thinking.” Confirmation bias is the precursor to the self-fulfilling prophecy where one would believe something is true so they behave in ways that make it true, confirming their initial belief. Problematically, confirmation bias leads people to ignore information that challenges or disproves their initial belief. This causes serious problems when leaders claim to be in pursuit of the truth while being guided by their prejudices.

In 1978, Kenny Loggins and Michael McDonald co-wrote the song, What a Fool Believes. They decided to each do their own arrangements and release it. Kenny Loggins released his version in late 1978 without much fanfare, a solid but unremarkable effort. In January 1979, Michael McDonald, a member of the Doobie Brothers at the time, released his version on the album Minute by Minute. What a Fool Believes, was a hit that raced to the top of the charts almost immediately. What was more impressive was that all the top hits in the first 8 months of 1979 were disco, What a Fool Believes overcame the disco trend and stayed near the top of the charts that year. Here is a short excerpt of the lyrics.

She had a place in his life

He never made her think twice

As he rises to her apology

Anybody else would surely know

He's watching her go

But what a fool believes, he sees

No wise man has the power to reason away

What Loggins and McDonald are saying in the song is “he” believed that “she” was the one for him and there was a life they could rebuild together. From the outside, anybody could see there was nothing to rebuild. Worse, there never was anything. It is wishful thinking that guided behaviors that the Doobies were singing about 40 years ago. One person blinded by their desire to be with another, ignoring signs that were obvious from the outside. Confirmation bias is a powerful thing in love and at work. It will push you to over value the things that agree with your bias, and under value things that disagree with it. Politics provides an excellent example of confirmation bias where people make excuses, minimize, and reconstrue facts for people they like while exaggerating, and catastrophizing things they don’t.

Disgraced NBA Official Tim Donaghy has confirmed what Sacramento Kings fans have been screaming about since 2002; the league wanted the Lakers in the Championship series that year, so the referees officiated the game in such a way that it would happen. The imbalance of foul calls, and trips to the free-throw line cost the Kings a title and is a topic still discussed by basketball panelists today. There are more televisions in Los Angeles vs Sacramento so more people will watch the championship series, which means higher ratings and more money for the league if the Lakers beat the Kings. The NBA wanted the Lakers in the finals so to make it true, they used their influence on the game officials to make it happen and over the past 17 years facts have been construed in ways that suggest that the best team won any idea of a conspiracy is misguided. Until one of the officials stepped up and admitted it.

Research suggests that Bosses support employees they choose over employees they inherit. The result? Better assignments, forgiveness of mistakes and generous praise, better assessments and evaluations for the employees selected by the boss and less forgiveness, praise and tougher evaluations for inherited employees. This bias toward people you choose is part of the reason good organizations have large panels of people when interviewing candidates. A consensus means that whomever is selected will, at least initially, have the support of the people who made the decision and that person is less likely to be undermined by people who feel no connection.

Confirmation bias also influences investigations. Usually, the person conducting the inquiry will be influenced by his opinion of the people involved. Basically, the investigator will find in favor of the person he likes the most. Worse, organizations will hire outside agencies to conduct investigations to give the impression of impartiality, then construe the findings to favor the person they wanted to win. In December 2013 a Connecticut Federal Court excoriated IBM for its biased investigation into an age discrimination claim. After reviewing the information, the court found that “There is also reason to suspect that the purpose was to exonerate IBM more than to determine if Mr. Castelluccio was treated fairly.” Many times, people who say they “don’t have a dog in the fight”, do and are willing to take their fight to the highest court.

Just like the subject the Doobie Brothers sang about in 1979, our biases, prejudices, and slants can blind us to what is really going on. If we are not careful, when led by our feelings, we can make bad decisions that harm people at work without realizing it. More than that, when we let our emotions lead, we will make arguments that justify actions, minimize other people, and diminish our actual impact as leaders. On the flip, if we can focus on the facts, and approach every situation with what Stanford professor Bob Sutton calls the beginners mind, we can get a lot more done, stay out of trouble, and build stronger teams. The beginners mind has no biases or opinions of the players involved. Leaders who can’t tap into the beginners mind just look like the fool the Doobies were singing about. Recognize and get over your desire to confirm your biases and you will SOAR!

William A. Brown

December 8, 2019

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/science-choice/201504/what-is-confirmation-bias

https://www.sbnation.com/videos/2018/10/1/17915354/the-fbi-and-a-disgraced-ref-are-at-the-center-of-one-of-the-nbas-biggest-conspiracy-theories

https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-nbas-greatest-ugliest-series

https://amyopp.com/biased-investigation-worse-investigation/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJe1iUuAW4M

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Confirmation Bias.. And the Doobie Brothers

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